global oil supply.

Will mature field declines drive the next supply crunch?

Supply constraints seem a distant prospect in the current oil market, but a return to balance in 2017 will leave the World with severely limited spare capacity

Meanwhile, near term productivity gains are temporarily masking a steady increase in mature field decline rates which could cut existing capacity by

40mbd (>42%) by 2040e

We think risks of supply constraints will resurface long before risks of global demand peaking, and a steady tightening in the supply/ demand balance post-2017 is behind our unchanged USD75/b long-term Brent price assumption